2019 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

27·24

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

47

Model margin

+3.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.077
  • 45.5%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.061
  • 9.6%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +7.05CPOE+2.34
  • 39.1%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.28
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:001435Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 8:1931Punt0–3
SFQ1 6:17783Touchdown0–10
SEAQ1 2:0334Punt0–10
SFQ1 0:3137Punt0–10
SEAQ2 13:27523Punt0–10
SFQ2 10:39736Punt0–10
SEAQ2 7:09624Punt0–10
SFQ2 3:382-10Opp touchdown7–10
SFQ2 2:5131Punt7–10
SEAQ2 1:47337Turnover7–10
SFQ2 1:04220End of half7–10
SEAQ3 15:00631Turnover7–10
SFQ3 12:0158Turnover on downs7–10
SEAQ3 10:02510Punt7–10
SFQ3 7:07311Turnover7–10
SEAQ3 6:07316Touchdown14–10
SFQ3 4:374-6Turnover14–10
SEAQ3 3:39424Touchdown21–10
SFQ3 1:42610Punt21–10
SEAQ4 14:0443Opp touchdown21–18
SEAQ4 12:0137Punt21–18
SFQ4 10:22748Field goal21–21
SEAQ4 6:171047Field goal24–21
SFQ4 1:45840Field goal24–24
SEAQ4 0:0100End of half24–24
SEAOT961Turnover24–24
SFOT620Missed field goal24–24
SEAOT38Punt24–24
SFOT30Punt24–24
SEAOT540Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson24/3423211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson25893.61
Russell Wilson6538.80
Tyler Lockett133.00
Rashaad Penny221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf610700
Jacob Hollister810621
Malik Turner22350
Josh Gordon22270
Tyler Lockett34260
Chris Carson34120
David Moore0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo24/4624811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman9404.40
Raheem Mostert6284.70
Matt Breida10181.80
Jimmy Garoppolo210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.8111120
Kendrick Bourne48421
Tevin Coleman44320
Emmanuel Sanders24240
Ross Dwelley37240
Raheem Mostert1170
Matt Breida2270
Marquise Goodwin0300
Dante Pettis0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.78