Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.077
- 45.5%Success rate44.8%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.061
- 9.6%Explosive rate12.1%
- +7.05CPOE+2.34
- 39.1%Third-down rate45.8%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.86Points / drive2.28
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24/34 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 25 | 89 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 8 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Malik Turner | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 24/46 | 248 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 11 | 112 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 8 | 42 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.78