2019 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

26·36

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.077
  • 42.7%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.194
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.061
  • 9.9%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -1.81CPOE+2.34
  • 36.0%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.28
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:001136Field goal3–0
SFQ1 10:3135Punt3–0
ARIQ1 9:121273Touchdown9–0
SFQ1 4:0455Turnover on downs9–0
ARIQ1 2:373-1Punt9–0
SFQ1 1:133-8Punt9–0
ARIQ2 14:06957Touchdown16–0
SFQ2 9:03575Touchdown16–7
ARIQ2 7:5262Punt16–7
SFQ2 4:461247Field goal16–10
SFQ3 15:00779Touchdown16–17
ARIQ3 11:073-4Punt16–17
SFQ3 9:35948Turnover16–17
ARIQ3 5:19622Field goal19–17
SFQ3 2:541075Touchdown19–23
ARIQ4 12:141178Touchdown26–23
SFQ4 6:30643Turnover26–23
ARIQ4 4:323-6Punt26–23
SFQ4 2:12865Touchdown26–30
ARIQ4 0:3115Turnover26–30
SFQ4 0:2548Turnover on downs26–30
ARIQ4 0:0624Opp touchdown26–36

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray24/3315020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake16674.20
Kyler Murray8678.41
Christian Kirk111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk69410
Larry Fitzgerald55371
Pharoh Cooper34351
KeeSean Johnson22140
Kenyan Drake67130
Andy Isabella1460
Darrell Daniels1140
Charles Clay0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo34/4542442

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman12141.20
Raheem Mostert6132.20
Jimmy Garoppolo177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.8101340
Richie James11570
Tevin Coleman34480
Emmanuel Sanders35330
Kendrick Bourne46311
Jeff Wilson11251
Raheem Mostert23140
Ross Dwelley45142
Marquise Goodwin1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.98