Closing spread
SF -10
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.077
- 42.7%Success rate44.8%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.194
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.061
- 9.9%Explosive rate12.1%
- -1.81CPOE+2.34
- 36.0%Third-down rate45.8%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.85Points / drive2.28
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 24/33 | 150 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 8 | 67 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 34/45 | 424 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 12 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 10 | 134 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 57 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 4 | 5 | 14 | 2 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.98