Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play+0.009
- 39.3%Success rate44.5%
- -0.010EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.145EPA / rush+0.022
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -3.03CPOE-3.86
- 35.4%Third-down rate41.9%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.61Points / drive1.94
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 33/47 | 296 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 8 | 15 | 104 | 2 |
| Chris Conley | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/24 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Williams | 13 | 116 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 14 | 109 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 4 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.12
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.60