2019 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Nick Foles

13·33

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • -0.053EPA / play+0.009
  • 39.3%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.145EPA / rush+0.022
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -3.03CPOE-3.86
  • 35.4%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.94
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
JAXQ1 15:00632Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:2730Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:55560Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 6:531181Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 0:35510Punt7–7
INDQ2 12:37854Field goal7–10
JAXQ2 8:2639Punt7–10
INDQ2 6:0834Punt7–10
JAXQ2 3:5433Punt7–10
INDQ2 3:07610Punt7–10
JAXQ2 0:5710Turnover7–10
INDQ2 0:4656Turnover on downs7–10
JAXQ2 0:17431End of half7–10
INDQ3 15:001192Touchdown7–17
JAXQ3 8:461031Turnover on downs7–17
INDQ3 3:53643Touchdown7–24
JAXQ3 0:5835Punt7–24
JAXQ3 0:0731Missed field goal7–24
INDQ4 14:52464Touchdown7–31
JAXQ4 12:42736Punt7–31
INDQ4 9:08737Turnover7–31
JAXQ4 4:281190Touchdown13–33
INDQ4 0:5900End of half13–33

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles33/4729621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette8232.90
Ryquell Armstead166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark8151042
Chris Conley68580
Keelan Cole45410
Leonard Fournette77340
Dede Westbrook46320
Ryquell Armstead22130
Ben Koyack1190
Josh Oliver1250

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett15/2414811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Williams131168.90
Marlon Mack141097.81
Chester Rogers11818.00
Jacoby Brissett2126.01
Nyheim Hines3113.71
Brian Hoyer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Johnson44381
Jonathan Williams11310
Eric Ebron44270
Nyheim Hines34240
Zach Pascal26170
Chester Rogers12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.12
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.60