2022 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

0·24

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.154EPA / play+0.045
  • 40.3%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.100
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.42CPOE+1.07
  • 33.3%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.07
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2021 · W18IND @ JAX11–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:00735Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 11:321668Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 2:2138Punt0–7
JAXQ2 15:0030Punt0–7
INDQ2 13:303-6Punt0–7
JAXQ2 11:32789Touchdown0–14
INDQ2 7:5239Punt0–14
JAXQ2 5:43941Field goal0–17
INDQ2 1:43525Punt0–17
JAXQ2 0:1200End of half0–17
JAXQ3 15:00829Punt0–17
INDQ3 10:09521Punt0–17
JAXQ3 7:591482Touchdown0–24
INDQ3 0:171270Turnover on downs0–24
JAXQ4 10:2937Punt0–24
INDQ4 8:21759Turnover on downs0–24
JAXQ4 6:1632Punt0–24
INDQ4 5:1220Turnover0–24
JAXQ4 4:2435Punt0–24
INDQ4 2:3710Turnover0–24
JAXQ4 2:3149Turnover on downs0–24
INDQ4 0:212-3End of half0–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan16/3019503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor9546.00
Ashton Dulin133.00
Nyheim Hines100.00
Deon Jackson2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ashton Dulin57790
Nyheim Hines45370
Dezmon Patmon26240
Mike Strachan13230
Kylen Granson22140
Mo Alie-Cox1390
Jonathan Taylor1190
Parris Campbell0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence25/3023520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson23642.81
Travis Etienne9202.20
Trevor Lawrence3113.70
Jamal Agnew210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk66782
Evan Engram78460
Marvin Jones35330
Travis Etienne33330
Zay Jones34230
James Robinson22140
Dan Arnold1180
Jamal Agnew0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.00