Closing spread
IND -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.045
- 40.3%Success rate46.6%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.42CPOE+1.07
- 33.3%Third-down rate42.0%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.33Points / drive2.07
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 16/30 | 195 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Dulin | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dezmon Patmon | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/30 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 23 | 64 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 6 | 78 | 2 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.00