2019 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

7·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • -0.136EPA / play-0.027
  • 38.5%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.257EPA / rush-0.116
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.51CPOE-3.23
  • 34.3%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.80
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. CLE are 26-30-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:19565Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 11:07830Missed field goal0–7
CLEQ1 7:47723Punt0–7
PITQ1 4:05523Punt0–7
CLEQ1 1:2636Punt0–7
PITQ1 0:2948Punt0–7
CLEQ2 13:58871Touchdown0–14
PITQ2 9:55819Turnover on downs0–14
CLEQ2 6:3736Punt0–14
PITQ2 5:32411Turnover0–14
CLEQ2 3:2933Missed field goal0–14
PITQ2 2:31613Punt0–14
CLEQ2 0:5228End of half0–14
CLEQ3 15:00514Punt0–14
PITQ3 11:11411Turnover0–14
CLEQ3 9:4434Punt0–14
PITQ3 8:11834Touchdown7–14
CLEQ3 5:391243Missed field goal7–14
PITQ4 15:00528Turnover on downs7–14
CLEQ4 13:2535Punt7–14
PITQ4 11:1338Punt7–14
CLEQ4 10:12725Punt7–14
PITQ4 6:3210Turnover7–14
CLEQ4 6:2234Touchdown7–21
PITQ4 5:25638Turnover7–21
CLEQ4 3:54517Punt7–21
PITQ4 1:40713Turnover on downs7–21
CLEQ4 0:0500End of half7–21

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph23/4422114

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Samuels5265.20
Mason Rudolph2157.50
Trey Edmunds3113.70
James Conner5102.00
Tony Brooks-James1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington35490
Vance McDonald37330
Trey Edmunds33270
Tevin Jones24240
JuJu Smith-Schuster24210
Jaylen Samuels56191
Johnny Holton17180
Diontae Johnson24170
Nick Vannett1170
James Conner1260

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield17/3219320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb27923.40
Kareem Hunt6122.00
Baker Mayfield111.01
Garrett Gilbert1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.410600
Kareem Hunt68460
Jarvis Landry47431
KhaDarel Hodge12410
Stephen Carlson1181
Nick Chubb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.33