Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play-0.027
- 38.5%Success rate41.3%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.257EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.51CPOE-3.23
- 34.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.80
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 23/44 | 221 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Samuels | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Trey Edmunds | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Brooks-James | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Trey Edmunds | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Tevin Jones | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 5 | 6 | 19 | 1 |
| Johnny Holton | 1 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/32 | 193 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 27 | 92 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33