Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-2.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play+0.001
- 48.1%Success rate44.3%
- +0.322EPA / dropback+0.089
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.159
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.13CPOE-1.88
- 48.0%Third-down rate38.8%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 2.90Points / drive1.95
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. LA are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/20 | 169 | 5 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1/3 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 15 | 111 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 95 | 11.9 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Boykin | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 7 | 42 | 2 |
| Seth Roberts | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 3 | 14 | 2 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/37 | 212 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 9 | 97 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.03