2019 · Week 12

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

45·6

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-2.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapRams
  • +0.203EPA / play+0.001
  • 48.1%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.322EPA / dropback+0.089
  • +0.088EPA / rush-0.159
  • 12.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.13CPOE-1.88
  • 48.0%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.95
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.9 points. LA are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LA @ BAL17–3RAMS
2023 · W14LA @ BAL31–37BAL
2021 · W17LA @ BAL20–19RAMS
2015 · W11STL @ BAL13–16BAL
2011 · W3BAL @ STL37–7BAL
2007 · W6STL @ BAL3–22BAL
2003 · W10BAL @ STL22–33RAMS
1999 · W1BAL @ STL10–27RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–LA
LAQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:351060Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 7:4743Punt7–0
BALQ1 5:20761Touchdown14–0
LAQ1 1:311556Field goal14–3
BALQ2 9:45970Touchdown21–3
LAQ2 4:42539Field goal21–6
BALQ2 1:55760Touchdown28–6
LAQ2 0:1200End of half28–6
BALQ3 15:001075Touchdown35–6
LAQ3 9:4638Punt35–6
BALQ3 8:4718104Touchdown42–6
LAQ4 14:43940Turnover42–6
BALQ4 12:361048Field goal45–6
LAQ4 6:35410Punt45–6
BALQ4 4:5535Punt45–6
LAQ4 3:09864Turnover45–6
BALQ4 1:2800End of half45–6

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/2016950
Robert Griffin III1/33900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram151117.41
Lamar Jackson89511.90
Gus Edwards14553.90
Justice Hill8273.40
Robert Griffin III3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Boykin22540
Mark Andrews23450
Marquise Brown57422
Seth Roberts34390
Willie Snead23142
Mark Ingram1171
Nick Boyle1170
Hayden Hurst0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3721202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley6223.70
Brandin Cooks111.00
Malcolm Brown100.00
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods69970
Cooper Kupp610350
Brandin Cooks24320
Gerald Everett22230
Tyler Higbee56200
Josh Reynolds2280
Todd Gurley33-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.03