Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:51 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 9:59 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:17 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 4:16 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:46 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 1:06 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 13:24 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q2 13:10 | 6 | -2 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 10:53 | 3 | -1 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q2 9:07 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 4:13 | 7 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 0–13 |
| BAL | Q2 1:03 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LA | Q2 0:36 | 5 | 33 | End of half | 0–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| BAL | Q3 14:20 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| LA | Q3 12:11 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| BAL | Q3 6:44 | 8 | 48 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| LA | Q3 3:17 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| BAL | Q3 2:02 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| LA | Q4 14:57 | 4 | 4 | Turnover | 3–19 |
| BAL | Q4 13:30 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 3–22 |
| LA | Q4 11:06 | 15 | 73 | Turnover on downs | 3–22 |
| BAL | Q4 3:50 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–22 |
| LA | Q4 2:45 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 3–22 |
| BAL | Q4 2:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–22 |
| LA | Q4 1:05 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 18/30 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 25 | 61 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.