Closing spread
BAL -9
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 18/30 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 25 | 61 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.