Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulRob HavensteinTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableChris LongDEKnee· Full
- QuestionableJustice CunninghamTEFinger· Limited
- QuestionableRobert QuinnDEHip· Limited
- ProbableTim BarnesCConcussion· Full
Ravens
- DoubtfulNick BoyleTEFoot· DNP
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· DNP
- ProbableChris CantyDENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableDaryl SmithLBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableElvis DumervilLBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Ravens
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 11:50 | 7 | 47 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:12 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 5:34 | 4 | 27 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:45 | 4 | 10 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 2:05 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:05 | 11 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q2 11:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:14 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q2 8:07 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 6:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q2 5:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q2 3:53 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| LA | Q3 11:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q3 10:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q3 9:37 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| BAL | Q3 9:01 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| LA | Q3 7:35 | 3 | 49 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LA | Q3 4:21 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q3 1:25 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LA | Q4 15:00 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q4 14:25 | 7 | 42 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| LA | Q4 11:11 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 13–10 |
| BAL | Q4 9:01 | 6 | 76 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LA | Q4 5:12 | 8 | 46 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q4 1:41 | 4 | 25 | Missed field goal | 13–13 |
| LA | Q4 1:13 | 4 | -5 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| BAL | Q4 0:54 | 3 | 12 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 27/44 | 299 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 22 | 67 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crockett Gillmore | 5 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 5 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Jeremy Butler | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Chris Givens | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.