2021 · Week 17

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

20·19

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LA -7

Total

47

Model margin

-3.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapRavens
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.009
  • 46.6%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.40CPOE+0.31
  • 42.6%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.93
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LA @ BAL17–3RAMS
2023 · W14LA @ BAL31–37BAL
2019 · W12BAL @ LA45–6BAL
2015 · W11STL @ BAL13–16BAL
2011 · W3BAL @ STL37–7BAL
2007 · W6STL @ BAL3–22BAL
2003 · W10BAL @ STL22–33RAMS
1999 · W1BAL @ STL10–27RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–BAL
BALQ1 15:00735Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:331168Missed field goal0–0
BALQ1 5:3634Punt0–0
LAQ1 3:3138Opp touchdown0–7
LAQ1 1:58838Turnover0–7
BALQ2 12:4115100Field goal0–10
LAQ2 3:41537Punt0–10
BALQ2 1:53314Turnover0–10
LAQ2 1:29329Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 0:55751Field goal7–13
LAQ2 0:0200End of half7–13
LAQ3 15:00755Turnover7–13
BALQ3 11:051447Field goal7–16
LAQ3 4:4239Punt7–16
BALQ3 2:4834Punt7–16
LAQ3 0:57755Touchdown14–16
BALQ4 12:091164Field goal14–19
LAQ4 4:30975Touchdown20–19
BALQ4 0:5768Turnover20–19

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/3530922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel19743.91
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp67951
Tyler Higbee69690
Van Jefferson45630
Odell Beckham Jr.57391
Sony Michel35250
Ben Skowronek22180

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley20/3219701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman14765.40
Tyler Huntley6549.00
Latavius Murray11312.80
Devin Duvernay144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews66890
Rashod Bateman710580
Marquise Brown38280
Devin Duvernay23190
Nick Boyle1120
Devonta Freeman1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.19