Closing spread
LA -7
Total
47
Model margin
-3.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.009
- 46.6%Success rate46.3%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.40CPOE+0.31
- 42.6%Third-down rate36.5%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.32Points / drive1.93
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/35 | 309 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 6 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 20/32 | 197 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 14 | 76 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 7 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.19