2025 · Week 6

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

17·3

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Cooper Rush

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

LA -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapRavens
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.037
  • 52.2%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.036
  • +0.021EPA / rush+0.038
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +1.65CPOE+2.86
  • 40.0%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.30
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14LA @ BAL31–37BAL
2021 · W17LA @ BAL20–19RAMS
2019 · W12BAL @ LA45–6BAL
2015 · W11STL @ BAL13–16BAL
2011 · W3BAL @ STL37–7BAL
2007 · W6STL @ BAL3–22BAL
2003 · W10BAL @ STL22–33RAMS
1999 · W1BAL @ STL10–27RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–BAL
BALQ1 15:001363Field goal0–3
LAQ1 7:221057Missed field goal0–3
BALQ1 2:2333Turnover0–3
LAQ1 1:291-9Turnover0–3
BALQ1 1:23517Turnover on downs0–3
LAQ2 14:111148Field goal3–3
BALQ2 9:50928Punt3–3
LAQ2 5:0237Punt3–3
BALQ2 3:25829Turnover on downs3–3
LAQ2 0:0800End of half3–3
LAQ3 15:00976Touchdown10–3
BALQ3 11:52210Turnover10–3
LAQ3 11:00221Touchdown17–3
BALQ3 10:201348Turnover17–3
LAQ3 3:211033Turnover on downs17–3
BALQ4 13:301779Turnover on downs17–3
LAQ4 3:44510Punt17–3
BALQ4 1:52719Turnover on downs17–3
LAQ4 0:2300End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford17/2618110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams13503.81
Blake Corum5234.60
Matthew Stafford410.30
Terrance Ferguson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee44401
Davante Adams49390
Kyren Williams22370
Puka Nacua23280
Jordan Whittington34230
Davis Allen1270
Konata Mumpfield1270

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush11/197201
Tyler Huntley10/156800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry241225.10
Tyler Huntley33913.00
Justice Hill6162.70
Mark Andrews320.70
Cooper Rush100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers610460
Justice Hill56280
Mark Andrews46240
DeAndre Hopkins24200
Derrick Henry1280
Rashod Bateman1180
Isaiah Likely2260
Charlie Kolar0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.81
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.57