Closing spread
LA -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.037
- 52.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.036
- +0.021EPA / rush+0.038
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.65CPOE+2.86
- 40.0%Third-down rate41.4%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.67Points / drive2.30
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/26 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 11/19 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 10/15 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 122 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.57