Closing spread
STL -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. STL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 49 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:50 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 11:12 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LA | Q1 9:31 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q1 9:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q1 7:13 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 5:23 | 2 | -5 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| BAL | Q1 4:28 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 2:22 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–14 |
| BAL | Q2 14:01 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 10:11 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–14 |
| BAL | Q2 9:05 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 12–14 |
| LA | Q2 6:43 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 12–14 |
| BAL | Q2 5:21 | 3 | -8 | Opp touchdown | 12–21 |
| BAL | Q2 4:44 | 11 | 52 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| LA | Q2 1:19 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 19–21 |
| BAL | Q2 0:36 | 3 | 6 | End of half | 19–21 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 19–21 |
| BAL | Q3 13:35 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 19–21 |
| BAL | Q3 11:33 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 22–21 |
| LA | Q3 10:22 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 22–21 |
| BAL | Q3 8:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 22–21 |
| LA | Q3 7:08 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 22–21 |
| BAL | Q3 5:40 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 22–21 |
| LA | Q3 4:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 22–21 |
| BAL | Q3 4:46 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 22–21 |
| LA | Q3 1:54 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 22–24 |
| BAL | Q4 14:52 | 7 | 20 | Turnover | 22–24 |
| LA | Q4 11:13 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 22–27 |
| BAL | Q4 9:08 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 22–27 |
| LA | Q4 7:54 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 22–30 |
| BAL | Q4 5:25 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 22–30 |
| LA | Q4 3:39 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 22–33 |
| BAL | Q4 1:41 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 22–33 |
| LA | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 10/21 | 112 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Redman | 7/12 | 58 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 27 | 111 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Redman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.