2023 · Week 14

Final / OT

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

31·37

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapRavens
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.069
  • 44.9%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.022EPA / rush+0.009
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -3.54CPOE+2.73
  • 41.4%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.25
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6LA @ BAL17–3RAMS
2021 · W17LA @ BAL20–19RAMS
2019 · W12BAL @ LA45–6BAL
2015 · W11STL @ BAL13–16BAL
2011 · W3BAL @ STL37–7BAL
2007 · W6STL @ BAL3–22BAL
2003 · W10BAL @ STL22–33RAMS
1999 · W1BAL @ STL10–27RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–BAL
BALQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:361252Field goal3–0
BALQ1 5:35520Punt3–0
LAQ1 4:00413Punt3–0
BALQ1 1:54366Touchdown3–7
LAQ1 0:25765Touchdown10–7
BALQ2 12:01575Touchdown10–14
LAQ2 9:401055Touchdown17–14
BALQ2 5:0010Turnover17–14
LAQ2 4:46732Field goal20–14
BALQ2 1:451162Field goal20–17
LAQ2 0:0900End of half20–17
LAQ3 15:0039Punt20–17
BALQ3 13:34749Field goal20–20
LAQ3 10:0262Punt20–20
BALQ3 6:3935Safety22–20
LAQ3 5:54633Punt22–20
BALQ3 2:051165Field goal22–23
LAQ4 11:1732Punt22–23
BALQ4 10:2439Punt22–23
LAQ4 8:01885Touchdown28–23
BALQ4 4:411375Touchdown28–31
LAQ4 1:16657Field goal31–31
BALQ4 0:0700End of half31–31
BALOT34Punt31–31
LAOT36Opp touchdown31–37

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/4129430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams251144.60
Royce Freeman393.00
Puka Nacua166.00
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp8101151
Puka Nacua59840
Davis Allen45501
Demarcus Robinson310461
Tutu Atwell0100
Kyren Williams34-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson24/4331631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson11706.40
Keaton Mitchell9546.00
Gus Edwards6152.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.410971
Isaiah Likely57831
Zay Flowers610601
Nelson Agholor55320
Rashod Bateman24240
Justice Hill12120
Keaton Mitchell1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.63