Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.069
- 44.9%Success rate47.3%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.022EPA / rush+0.009
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.8%
- -3.54CPOE+2.73
- 41.4%Third-down rate42.3%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 2.13Points / drive2.25
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. BAL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/41 | 294 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 8 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 10 | 46 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 24/43 | 316 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 70 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 5 | 7 | 83 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.63