Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Ravens
- OutDavid ReedWRShoulder· DNP
- OutJimmy SmithCBAnkle· DNP
- OutLee EvansWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBen GrubbsGToe· DNP
- QuestionableChris CarrCBThigh· Limited
- ProbableCory ReddingDEToe· Limited
- ProbableTerrence CodyDTHead· Limited
- ProbableMatt BirkCKnee· Full
Rams
- DoubtfulDanny AmendolaWRElbow· DNP
- QuestionableBen LeberLBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableC.J. Ah YouDEWrist· Limited
- QuestionableCarnell WilliamsRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBQuadricep· Limited
- ProbableMichael HoomanawanuiTECalf· Limited
- ProbableGreg SalasWRRibs· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. STL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:50 | 2 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 11:01 | 6 | 21 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:49 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q1 6:49 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:38 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–0 |
| BAL | Q1 2:59 | 3 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:48 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 21–0 |
| BAL | Q1 0:16 | 11 | 44 | Missed field goal | 21–0 |
| LA | Q2 11:31 | 13 | 42 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| BAL | Q2 6:15 | 8 | 84 | Field goal | 24–0 |
| LA | Q2 3:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–0 |
| BAL | Q2 2:05 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 27–0 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 30–0 |
| LA | Q3 10:29 | 11 | 95 | Touchdown | 30–7 |
| BAL | Q3 5:14 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 30–7 |
| LA | Q3 2:22 | 13 | 43 | Punt | 30–7 |
| BAL | Q4 11:22 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 30–7 |
| LA | Q4 9:28 | 5 | 11 | Turnover on downs | 30–7 |
| BAL | Q4 8:16 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 30–7 |
| LA | Q4 5:36 | 2 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 37–7 |
| LA | Q4 4:58 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 37–7 |
| BAL | Q4 3:10 | 4 | 8 | End of half | 37–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 27/48 | 389 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 9 | 81 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 8 | 152 | 3 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 14 | 74 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.