Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. STL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 27/48 | 389 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 9 | 81 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Allen | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 8 | 152 | 3 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 14 | 74 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tandon Doss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.