Closing spread
PK
Total
39
Model margin
+1.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40.9 points. STL are 4-4-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.