Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.091
- 42.3%Success rate38.8%
- +0.075EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.77CPOE-3.50
- 33.6%Third-down rate30.2%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.72Points / drive1.32
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/32 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 5 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 13/25 | 160 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.49
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.05