2015 · Week 4

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·3

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

48

Model margin

+1.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge map49ers
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.091
  • 42.3%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.77CPOE-3.50
  • 33.6%Third-down rate30.2%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.32
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SF
GBQ1 15:001375Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 9:02425Punt7–0
GBQ1 6:44532Punt7–0
SFQ1 2:33513Punt7–0
GBQ1 0:2438Punt7–0
SFQ2 14:1939Punt7–0
GBQ2 12:1239Punt7–0
SFQ2 10:481177Field goal7–3
GBQ2 4:251464Missed field goal7–3
SFQ3 15:00614Punt7–3
GBQ3 11:431181Touchdown14–3
SFQ3 7:103-2Punt14–3
GBQ3 5:23735Field goal17–3
SFQ3 0:45614Punt17–3
GBQ4 13:12627Punt17–3
SFQ4 9:243-6Turnover17–3
GBQ4 8:1930Punt17–3
SFQ4 5:58744Turnover on downs17–3
GBQ4 4:24831Punt17–3
SFQ4 0:1328End of half17–3

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3222410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy18905.00
Aaron Rodgers33311.00
James Starks9283.10
Ty Montgomery2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones56980
Richard Rodgers56451
Randall Cobb58440
Ty Montgomery36150
James Starks22110
Eddie Lacy1330

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick13/2516001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick10575.70
Carlos Hyde8202.50
Reggie Bush100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith25540
Quinton Patton22530
Garrett Celek35260
Anquan Boldin37120
Vance McDonald1270
Reggie Bush1360
Carlos Hyde1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.49
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.05