2019 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Nick Foles

20·42

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -4.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.053EPA / play+0.063
  • 39.3%Success rate45.7%
  • -0.010EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.6%
  • -3.03CPOE+3.45
  • 35.4%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.99
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
JAXQ1 15:001141Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:52748Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:2133Punt0–0
TENQ1 3:51956Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 14:50628Punt0–0
TENQ2 10:38773Touchdown0–7
JAXQ2 6:29849Field goal3–7
TENQ2 1:5035Punt3–7
JAXQ2 1:07517Punt3–7
TENQ2 0:1400End of half3–7
TENQ3 15:00548Touchdown3–14
JAXQ3 13:1334Punt3–20
TENQ3 10:51174Touchdown3–21
JAXQ3 10:4000Touchdown3–27
TENQ3 10:3017Touchdown3–28
JAXQ3 10:2438Punt3–28
TENQ3 8:23380Touchdown3–35
JAXQ3 6:571369Touchdown11–35
TENQ3 2:23541Turnover11–35
JAXQ4 14:47756Touchdown17–35
TENQ4 11:50427Touchdown17–42
JAXQ4 9:4700Field goal17–42
JAXQ4 9:392-3Field goal17–42
JAXQ4 8:301154Field goal20–42
TENQ4 4:48416Punt20–42
JAXQ4 4:071043Turnover on downs20–42
TENQ4 1:3600End of half20–42

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles32/4827200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette24974.02
Nick Foles3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook89690
Leonard Fournette912620
Chris Conley49490
DJ Chark56380
Nick O'Leary44360
Keelan Cole22180
Ben Koyack0100
Ryquell Armstead0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill14/1825920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry191598.42
Ryan Tannehill7405.72
Dion Lewis5214.20
Jonnu Smith144.00
Kalif Raymond1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown451351
Corey Davis23290
Dion Lewis12240
MyCole Pruitt11200
Adam Humphries33200
Derrick Henry11160
Kalif Raymond11140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.12
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.85