Closing spread
TEN -4.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play+0.063
- 39.3%Success rate45.7%
- -0.010EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.6%
- -3.03CPOE+3.45
- 35.4%Third-down rate39.4%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.61Points / drive1.99
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 32/48 | 272 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 24 | 97 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Nick Foles | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 8 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 14/18 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 159 | 8.4 | 2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 5 | 135 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.12
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.85