Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-3.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play-0.097
- 38.5%Success rate40.3%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.257EPA / rush-0.137
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.51CPOE-5.27
- 34.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.35Points / drive1.31
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devlin Hodges | 5/11 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 8/16 | 85 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Kerrith Whyte | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Trey Edmunds | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 3 | 7 | 98 | 1 |
| Deon Cain | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tevin Jones | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Finley | 12/26 | 192 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 79 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Finley | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 9 | 101 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.05
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.91