2019 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

16·10

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Ryan Finley

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-3.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • -0.136EPA / play-0.097
  • 38.5%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.076
  • -0.257EPA / rush-0.137
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.51CPOE-5.27
  • 34.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.31
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
CINQ1 15:00733Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:3638Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:1631Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:571271Turnover0–0
CINQ1 0:486-6Punt0–0
PITQ2 13:1639Punt0–0
CINQ2 10:513-1Punt0–0
PITQ2 8:33950Field goal3–0
CINQ2 3:21369Touchdown3–7
PITQ2 1:55823Punt3–7
CINQ2 0:4148Punt3–7
PITQ2 0:1400End of half3–7
PITQ3 15:003-3Punt3–7
CINQ3 13:2931Punt3–7
PITQ3 12:36493Touchdown10–7
CINQ3 11:101159Field goal10–10
PITQ3 5:0731Punt10–10
CINQ3 3:2231Punt10–10
PITQ3 2:24422Punt10–10
CINQ3 0:0537Punt10–10
PITQ4 14:2073Field goal13–10
CINQ4 11:59672Turnover13–10
PITQ4 8:45514Punt13–10
CINQ4 5:3230Punt13–10
PITQ4 5:11635Field goal16–10
CINQ4 3:1820Turnover16–10
PITQ4 2:38217End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Devlin Hodges5/1111810
Mason Rudolph8/168501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell21984.70
Kerrith Whyte6437.20
Trey Edmunds273.50
Jaylen Samuels263.00
Mason Rudolph441.00
Devlin Hodges310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington37981
Deon Cain11350
Diontae Johnson36290
Jaylen Samuels33260
Tevin Jones1390
Benny Snell1150
Vance McDonald1110

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Finley12/2619210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18794.40
Ryan Finley284.00
Giovani Bernard1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd591011
Alex Erickson28430
Giovani Bernard33310
Auden Tate13100
Tyler Eifert1170
C.J. Uzomah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.05
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.91