Closing spread
CHI -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-7.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.039
- 41.1%Success rate41.5%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.193
- 6.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.71CPOE-3.54
- 36.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.50Points / drive1.73
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 29/38 | 338 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Miller | 9 | 13 | 140 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 8 | 12 | 86 | 1 |
| Javon Wims | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 22/38 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scarbrough | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| David Blough | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 5 | 158 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
30.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-7.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-7.06