2019 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

24·20

Lions

Detroit

QB David Blough

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -5.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-7.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.039
  • 41.1%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.049
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.193
  • 6.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.71CPOE-3.54
  • 36.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.73
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:00650Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 11:37375Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 11:0136Punt7–7
DETQ1 9:261078Touchdown7–14
CHIQ1 4:1200Punt7–14
DETQ1 4:0735Punt7–14
CHIQ1 2:3732Punt7–14
DETQ1 1:3935Punt7–14
CHIQ1 0:461584Turnover on downs7–14
DETQ2 8:091366Field goal7–17
CHIQ2 3:10852Field goal10–17
DETQ2 0:2227End of half10–17
DETQ3 15:0034Punt10–17
CHIQ3 13:46640Turnover10–17
DETQ3 10:533-1Punt10–17
CHIQ3 9:18990Touchdown17–17
DETQ3 4:441676Field goal17–20
CHIQ4 10:473-4Punt17–20
DETQ4 8:37415Punt17–20
CHIQ4 6:4010100Touchdown24–20
DETQ4 2:171434Turnover24–20
CHIQ4 0:2900End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky29/3833831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery16754.70
Tarik Cohen393.00
Mitchell Trubisky441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Miller9131400
Allen Robinson812861
Javon Wims56560
Tarik Cohen44260
Jesper Horsted11181
David Montgomery22121

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Blough22/3828021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Scarbrough21834.00
Ty Johnson3124.00
J.D. McKissic294.50
David Blough111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay451581
Marvin Jones36401
Danny Amendola38320
T.J. Hockenson611180
Ty Johnson33170
J.D. McKissic33150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.6%3.3%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.2%5.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

30.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-7.06