2019 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

13·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Devlin Hodges

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

40

Model margin

+1.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.136
  • 41.3%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.116EPA / rush-0.257
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.23CPOE-1.51
  • 36.3%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.35
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 43–14–1 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. PIT are 30-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CLE @ PIT6–27PIT
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:001262Field goal3–0
PITQ1 7:313-9Punt3–0
CLEQ1 5:09615Punt3–0
PITQ1 0:57518Punt3–0
CLEQ2 13:221070Touchdown10–0
PITQ2 7:40967Field goal10–3
CLEQ2 2:5634Punt10–3
PITQ2 1:48569Touchdown10–10
CLEQ2 1:00832Turnover on downs10–10
PITQ3 15:00978Touchdown10–17
CLEQ3 10:361136Turnover10–17
PITQ3 4:49940Field goal10–20
CLEQ4 13:4832Punt10–20
PITQ4 12:10312Punt10–20
CLEQ4 10:18661Field goal13–20
PITQ4 7:3010Turnover13–20
CLEQ4 7:183-8Punt13–20
PITQ4 5:351051Punt13–20
CLEQ4 1:4545Turnover13–20
PITQ4 1:0600End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/3219611
Garrett Gilbert0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb16583.60
Kareem Hunt7466.60
Baker Mayfield122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry611760
Odell Beckham Jr.36290
Stephen Carlson22280
Demetrius Harris14230
Nick Chubb12210
Kareem Hunt55191
Rashard Higgins0300

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Devlin Hodges14/2121211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell16633.91
Jaylen Samuels7324.60
Diontae Johnson11717.00
Kerrith Whyte3103.30
Devlin Hodges520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington441111
Tevin Jones11280
Jaylen Samuels22220
Vance McDonald33210
Diontae Johnson15140
Nick Vannett1170
Deon Cain1150
Benny Snell1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.86