Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
40
Model margin
+1.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.136
- 41.3%Success rate38.5%
- +0.025EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.257
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.23CPOE-1.51
- 36.3%Third-down rate34.3%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.80Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/32 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devlin Hodges | 14/21 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Kerrith Whyte | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 4 | 4 | 111 | 1 |
| Tevin Jones | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86