Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.014
- 44.3%Success rate42.7%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.159EPA / rush+0.004
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.88CPOE-1.81
- 38.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.95Points / drive1.85
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 32/43 | 424 | 2 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 13 | 18 | 172 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 7 | 8 | 107 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/34 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+1.06