2019 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

34·7

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LA -2.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.001EPA / play+0.014
  • 44.3%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.159EPA / rush+0.004
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.88CPOE-1.81
  • 38.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.85
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ARI
LAQ1 15:00966Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 9:5635Punt3–0
LAQ1 8:51548Missed field goal3–0
ARIQ1 5:55416Punt3–0
LAQ1 3:191289Touchdown10–0
ARIQ2 14:17737Punt10–0
LAQ2 10:53632Punt10–0
ARIQ2 7:1938Punt10–0
LAQ2 5:55782Touchdown17–0
ARIQ2 2:413-3Punt17–0
LAQ2 1:53973Field goal20–0
ARIQ3 15:0068Punt20–0
LAQ3 12:019102Touchdown27–0
ARIQ3 8:4420Opp touchdown34–0
ARIQ3 8:2879Turnover on downs34–0
LAQ3 6:353-3Punt34–0
ARIQ3 4:2231Punt34–0
LAQ3 3:241150Turnover on downs34–0
ARIQ4 13:501380Touchdown34–7
LAQ4 8:35418Punt34–7
ARIQ4 6:321136Turnover on downs34–7
LAQ4 2:073-8Punt34–7
ARIQ4 0:2011End of half34–7

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff32/4342420
Blake Bortles1/2300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley19955.01
Malcolm Brown6305.00
Darrell Henderson4174.30
Blake Bortles1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods13181720
Tyler Higbee781071
Cooper Kupp66651
Josh Reynolds44390
Brandin Cooks22240
Todd Gurley11200
Malcolm Brown0100
Johnny Mundt0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray19/3416301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake13312.40
Kyler Murray4287.01
David Johnson4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald67560
Charles Clay22290
Pharoh Cooper46260
Christian Kirk37230
Kenyan Drake25200
David Johnson2290
Damiere Byrd0300
Andy Isabella0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+1.06