Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.009
- 45.7%Success rate44.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.022
- 11.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.45CPOE-3.86
- 39.4%Third-down rate41.9%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.94
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/22 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 26 | 149 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 40 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Cody Hollister | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 25/40 | 319 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 7 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 6 | 11 | 73 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.85