2019 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

31·17

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapColts
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.009
  • 45.7%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.046EPA / rush+0.022
  • 11.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.45CPOE-3.86
  • 39.4%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.94
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–IND
TENQ1 15:0019Turnover0–0
INDQ1 14:51744Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:031175Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 5:05643Missed field goal7–7
TENQ1 2:111-12Turnover7–7
INDQ1 2:033-2Missed field goal7–7
TENQ1 0:43616Punt7–7
INDQ2 12:271080Field goal7–10
TENQ2 6:073-8Punt7–10
INDQ2 3:50413Punt7–10
TENQ2 1:50738Punt7–10
INDQ2 0:1500End of half7–10
INDQ3 15:001175Touchdown7–17
TENQ3 10:23985Touchdown14–17
INDQ3 5:5210Turnover14–17
TENQ3 5:4032Field goal17–17
INDQ3 4:2633Punt17–17
TENQ3 2:5536Punt17–17
INDQ3 0:41517Punt17–17
TENQ4 13:32733Punt17–17
INDQ4 11:021057Opp touchdown24–17
INDQ4 5:0220Turnover24–17
TENQ4 4:41344Touchdown31–17
INDQ4 3:02762Turnover31–17
TENQ4 1:5827End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2218220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry261495.71
Ryan Tannehill451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown34450
Kalif Raymond11401
Corey Davis12230
Anthony Firkser34220
Derrick Henry33170
Adam Humphries12131
Cody Hollister22130
Dion Lewis1190
Jonnu Smith2200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett25/4031912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins11474.30
Nyheim Hines4225.51
Jonathan Williams8141.80
Jacoby Brissett1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Pascal7101090
Jack Doyle611731
Marcus Johnson46550
Ross Travis23310
Nyheim Hines22180
Ashton Dulin11130
Jonathan Williams11110
Jordan Wilkins2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.85