Closing spread
CLE -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.027
- 40.3%Success rate41.3%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -5.27CPOE-3.23
- 36.0%Third-down rate36.3%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.80
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/38 | 262 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 1/1 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 23 | 146 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Stanley Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 11/24 | 192 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 15 | 106 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Garrett Gilbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69