2019 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

19·27

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CLE -6.5

Total

43

Model margin

+2.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.027
  • 40.3%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.116
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -5.27CPOE-3.23
  • 36.0%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.80
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:00769Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 10:56649Turnover3–0
CINQ1 7:19414Opp touchdown3–7
CINQ1 5:36645Field goal6–7
CLEQ1 1:3730Turnover6–7
CINQ1 0:28652Touchdown13–7
CLEQ2 12:071185Touchdown13–14
CINQ2 6:3732Punt13–14
CLEQ2 4:583-5Punt13–14
CINQ2 3:56529Punt13–14
CLEQ2 1:39310Punt13–14
CINQ2 1:01631End of half13–14
CLEQ3 15:00675Touchdown13–21
CINQ3 12:101576Field goal16–21
CLEQ3 4:39740Field goal16–24
CINQ3 0:161684Turnover on downs16–24
CLEQ4 7:141480Field goal16–27
CINQ4 1:06349Field goal19–27
CLEQ4 0:1200End of half19–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3826201
Alex Erickson1/12600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon231466.31
Giovani Bernard4153.80
Andy Dalton3113.70
Tyler Boyd177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd56750
Tyler Eifert44490
Alex Erickson57450
Joe Mixon34400
Giovani Bernard23310
John Ross23280
Auden Tate14160
C.J. Uzomah1240
Stanley Morgan0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield11/2419202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb151067.10
Kareem Hunt9283.11
Baker Mayfield2136.51
Garrett Gilbert1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry47760
Kareem Hunt22400
Odell Beckham Jr.25390
Ricky Seals-Jones11220
Nick Chubb11110
David Njoku1340
Damion Ratley0100
KhaDarel Hodge0100
Stephen Carlson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69