Closing spread
MIN -12
Total
43.5
Model margin
+12.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.056
- 41.5%Success rate42.1%
- +0.049EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- -3.54CPOE+3.53
- 41.4%Third-down rate44.0%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.73Points / drive2.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 24/40 | 205 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Scarbrough | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaac Nauta | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/30 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alexander Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
78.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+7.27
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+12.03