2019 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB David Blough

7·20

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -12

Total

43.5

Model margin

+12.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.056
  • 41.5%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.049EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -3.54CPOE+3.53
  • 41.4%Third-down rate44.0%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
MINQ1 14:07513Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:5438Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:271169Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 5:47911Punt0–7
MINQ1 1:451144Punt0–7
DETQ2 11:5538Punt0–7
MINQ2 9:54861Field goal0–10
DETQ2 4:421438Missed field goal0–10
MINQ2 1:06665Touchdown0–17
DETQ2 0:20311End of half0–17
MINQ3 15:0035Punt0–17
DETQ3 13:3538Punt0–17
MINQ3 12:1333Punt0–17
DETQ3 10:30415Punt0–17
MINQ3 8:07613Punt0–17
DETQ3 4:5925Turnover0–17
MINQ3 4:24832Field goal0–20
DETQ4 14:55923Punt0–20
MINQ4 10:02642Punt0–20
DETQ4 5:391275Touchdown7–20
MINQ4 2:0948Turnover on downs7–20
DETQ4 1:45635Turnover7–20
MINQ4 0:3000End of half7–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Blough24/4020512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Scarbrough19653.40
Ty Johnson231.50
J.D. McKissic122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay68581
Marvin Jones37380
Danny Amendola58340
Jesse James12230
Logan Thomas24210
J.D. McKissic44160
Ty Johnson1170
Bo Scarbrough1350
Isaac Nauta1130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3024210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook18623.41
Alexander Mattison14463.30
Mike Boone5132.60
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs69920
Laquon Treadwell22420
Irv Smith34210
Alexander Mattison22180
Dalvin Cook22130
Tyler Conklin33130
Kyle Rudolph22110
Bisi Johnson1191
Ameer Abdullah1120
Alexander Hollins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +124.3%6.2%2.2%2.9%4.7%3.4%3.6%3.1%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

78.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+7.27
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+12.03