2019 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

21·22

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYJ -5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.155
  • 41.5%Success rate37.3%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback-0.119
  • -0.268EPA / rush-0.216
  • 6.3%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -2.66CPOE+0.20
  • 35.1%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.20
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00930Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:171677Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 3:061074Touchdown3–6
MIAQ2 13:4510Turnover3–6
NYJQ2 13:37625Field goal3–9
MIAQ2 11:011052Field goal6–9
NYJQ2 5:41777Touchdown6–16
MIAQ2 1:55860Field goal9–16
NYJQ2 0:1900End of half9–16
MIAQ3 15:00924Field goal12–16
NYJQ3 10:43619Turnover12–16
MIAQ3 7:3637Missed field goal12–16
NYJQ3 6:061151Turnover on downs12–16
MIAQ3 1:0030Punt12–16
NYJQ3 0:3733Punt12–16
MIAQ4 14:43855Field goal15–16
NYJQ4 10:5234Punt15–16
MIAQ4 9:17521Field goal18–16
NYJQ4 6:59851Field goal18–19
MIAQ4 4:05966Field goal21–19
NYJQ4 1:33641Field goal21–22

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3724501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick7659.30
Patrick Laird15483.20
Myles Gaskin451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Ford69920
Allen Hurns58680
Patrick Laird45380
DeVante Parker22280
Mike Gesicki1560
Myles Gaskin1260
Albert Wilson1250
Durham Smythe1120
Mack Hollins0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold20/3627021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell19743.90
Ty Montgomery9313.40
Robbie Chosen144.00
Sam Darnold331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen7111171
Vyncint Smith13370
Ty Montgomery33300
Jamison Crowder37290
Demaryius Thomas24281
Bilal Powell23140
Ryan Griffin1180
Daniel Brown1270
Braxton Berrios0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.67