Closing spread
NYJ -5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.155
- 41.5%Success rate37.3%
- +0.002EPA / dropback-0.119
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.216
- 6.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- -2.66CPOE+0.20
- 35.1%Third-down rate30.8%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate48.5%
- 1.62Points / drive1.20
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/37 | 245 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Ford | 6 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/36 | 270 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 11 | 117 | 1 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67