2019 · Week 14 · Division

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·23

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PHI -9.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.8%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -1.92CPOE-1.01
  • 37.8%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 69.6%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.01
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0062Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:5133Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:1149Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 7:43410Punt0–0
PHIQ1 5:57618Punt0–0
NYGQ1 2:57762Touchdown7–0
PHIQ2 14:52969Field goal7–3
NYGQ2 9:33866Field goal10–3
PHIQ2 5:3035Punt10–3
NYGQ2 3:4831Punt10–3
PHIQ2 2:3737Punt10–3
NYGQ2 1:46684Touchdown17–3
PHIQ2 0:2736Punt17–3
NYGQ3 15:003-10Punt17–3
PHIQ3 13:3031Punt17–3
NYGQ3 12:01417Punt17–3
PHIQ3 9:3849Punt17–3
NYGQ3 8:0635Punt17–3
PHIQ3 7:071058Touchdown17–10
NYGQ3 1:28416Punt17–10
PHIQ4 14:481058Missed field goal17–10
NYGQ4 9:553-5Punt17–10
PHIQ4 8:101580Touchdown17–17
NYGQ4 1:5337Punt17–17
PHIQ4 1:25421Punt17–17
NYGQ4 0:1000End of half17–17
PHIOT875Touchdown17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning15/3020320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley17663.90
Sterling Shepard188.00
Eli Manning2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton581542
Sterling Shepard47280
Golden Tate15110
Kaden Smith2590
Saquon Barkley3410

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz33/5032520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott10595.91
Miles Sanders15453.00
Carson Wentz591.80
Jay Ajayi252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz913912
Boston Scott66690
Dallas Goedert36410
Josh Perkins55370
Greg Ward49340
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside23290
Miles Sanders45240
Alshon Jeffery0200
Jay Ajayi0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.62