Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.004
- 41.8%Success rate44.9%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.92CPOE-1.01
- 37.8%Third-down rate45.1%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.56Points / drive2.01
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 15/30 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 8 | 154 | 2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 33/50 | 325 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 13 | 91 | 2 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 4 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62