2019 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

12·28

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LA -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRams
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.001
  • 45.5%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.159
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +7.05CPOE-1.88
  • 39.1%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.95
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LA
SEAQ1 15:001159Field goal3–0
LAQ1 8:34875Touchdown3–7
SEAQ1 5:0839Punt3–7
LAQ1 2:571276Touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 11:28851Turnover on downs3–14
LAQ2 7:3037Punt3–14
SEAQ2 5:55310Punt3–14
LAQ2 4:041182Touchdown3–21
SEAQ2 0:51517End of half3–21
LAQ3 15:00627Opp touchdown9–21
LAQ3 12:54637Turnover9–21
SEAQ3 9:4834Punt9–21
LAQ3 8:15533Missed field goal9–21
SEAQ3 5:39621Punt9–21
LAQ3 1:5731Punt9–21
SEAQ3 1:00317Punt9–21
LAQ4 14:47795Touchdown9–28
SEAQ4 11:071374Field goal12–28
LAQ4 7:0333Punt12–28
SEAQ4 4:321146Turnover12–28
LAQ4 1:25320End of half12–28

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3624501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson15765.10
Russell Wilson5285.60
C.J. Prosise122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf66780
Tyler Lockett46430
Josh Gordon25340
Jacob Hollister46340
Rashaad Penny11160
David Moore12150
Chris Carson34150
Malik Turner13100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3129322
Cooper Kupp0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley23793.41
Robert Woods22914.50
Josh Reynolds3299.70
Malcolm Brown5214.21
Jared Goff242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee7111160
Robert Woods79981
Cooper Kupp44451
Todd Gurley44340
Brandin Cooks0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.63