Closing spread
LA -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.001
- 45.5%Success rate44.3%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.159
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- +7.05CPOE-1.88
- 39.1%Third-down rate38.8%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.86Points / drive1.95
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/36 | 245 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 15 | 76 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/31 | 293 | 2 | 2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 79 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 7 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 9 | 98 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.63