2019 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

13·21

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 11°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

40

Model margin

+3.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.059
  • 41.1%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.062
  • 6.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.71CPOE+0.96
  • 36.4%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.12
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
CHIQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:25616Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:593-9Punt0–0
GBQ1 6:55435Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 4:4735Punt0–7
GBQ1 2:58732Punt0–7
CHIQ2 14:411449Turnover on downs0–7
GBQ2 7:30623Turnover on downs0–7
CHIQ2 5:03752Field goal3–7
GBQ2 1:45723Turnover on downs3–7
CHIQ2 0:0410Turnover3–7
GBQ3 15:00573Touchdown3–14
CHIQ3 12:44641Turnover on downs3–14
GBQ3 9:45566Touchdown3–21
CHIQ3 7:4838Punt3–21
GBQ3 6:49613Punt3–21
CHIQ3 3:331075Field goal6–21
GBQ4 14:5635Punt6–21
CHIQ4 13:121367Touchdown13–21
GBQ4 8:0947Punt13–21
CHIQ4 7:1026Turnover13–21
GBQ4 6:323-5Punt13–21
CHIQ4 4:111046Turnover on downs13–21
GBQ4 1:4234Punt13–21
CHIQ4 0:36557Turnover13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky29/5333412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14392.80
Mitchell Trubisky4297.30
Tarik Cohen8283.50
Cordarrelle Patterson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson7141250
Anthony Miller9151181
Tarik Cohen710570
Riley Ridley22100
David Montgomery11100
Jesper Horsted1390
Cordarrelle Patterson1460
J.P. Holtz11-10

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/3320310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13513.92
Jamaal Williams8263.30
Aaron Rodgers3237.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams7131031
Jake Kumerow11490
Geronimo Allison24190
Allen Lazard23140
Jamaal Williams1170
Marcedes Lewis1160
Robert Tonyan1250
Jimmy Graham1400
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.82