Closing spread
GB -4
Total
40
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.059
- 41.1%Success rate43.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.062
- 6.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.71CPOE+0.96
- 36.4%Third-down rate37.9%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 1.50Points / drive2.12
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 29/53 | 334 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 14 | 125 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 9 | 15 | 118 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Riley Ridley | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| J.P. Holtz | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/33 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 103 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 1 | 49 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.82