2019 · Week 15 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
38
Model margin
-5.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.130
- 44.9%Success rate38.8%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.01CPOE-2.94
- 45.1%Third-down rate29.0%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.01Points / drive1.49
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 30/43 | 266 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 19 | 122 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 10 | 61 | 1 |
| Greg Ward | 7 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 7 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 19/28 | 261 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 5 | 130 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 5 | 11 | 45 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.88
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-5.03