2019 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

37·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

38

Model margin

-5.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.130
  • 44.9%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.01CPOE-2.94
  • 45.1%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.49
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00939Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:031587Field goal3–0
WASQ1 1:23175Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 1:111370Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 9:53956Touchdown10–14
PHIQ2 6:5830Punt10–14
WASQ2 6:2436Punt10–14
PHIQ2 5:03732Punt10–14
WASQ2 1:46740Punt10–14
PHIQ2 0:4015End of half10–14
PHIQ3 15:0037Punt10–14
WASQ3 13:2835Punt10–14
PHIQ3 11:551356Touchdown17–14
WASQ3 5:531075Touchdown17–21
PHIQ4 14:53875Touchdown24–21
WASQ4 9:59530Field goal24–24
PHIQ4 8:0238Turnover24–24
WASQ4 6:2839Field goal24–27
PHIQ4 4:521175Touchdown31–27
WASQ4 0:26317Opp touchdown37–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz30/4326630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders191226.41
Boston Scott6264.30
Carson Wentz393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz510611
Greg Ward79611
Dallas Goedert56550
Miles Sanders66501
Boston Scott77390
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins19/2826120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson16664.11
Dwayne Haskins3268.70
Josh Ferguson393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin551301
Steven Sims511451
Chris Thompson23260
Adrian Peterson33250
Kelvin Harmon23220
Jeremy Sprinkle22130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.4%3.5%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.8%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.88
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-5.03