2019 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

27·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -8

Total

51

Model margin

+2.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.018
  • 42.7%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.119
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.81CPOE+7.05
  • 36.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:27989Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 8:50180Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 8:33847Punt7–7
ARIQ1 3:44627Punt7–7
SEAQ1 0:193-11Punt7–7
ARIQ2 14:08419Punt7–7
SEAQ2 12:063-11Punt7–7
ARIQ2 11:0837Punt7–7
SEAQ2 9:1237Punt7–7
ARIQ2 6:57554Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 4:1639Punt14–7
ARIQ2 2:261051Field goal17–7
SEAQ2 0:222-1End of half17–7
SEAQ3 15:00438Turnover17–7
ARIQ3 14:01537Field goal20–7
SEAQ3 11:3635Punt20–7
ARIQ3 10:023-4Punt20–7
SEAQ3 7:5738Punt20–7
ARIQ3 6:07931Missed field goal20–7
SEAQ3 1:0834Field goal20–10
ARIQ4 14:56618Punt20–10
SEAQ4 12:04727Field goal20–13
ARIQ4 10:02978Touchdown27–13
SEAQ4 4:18613Turnover on downs27–13
ARIQ4 2:50311End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray11/1811810
Brett Hundley4/94900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake241666.92
Kyler Murray6406.70
Brett Hundley6355.80
Christian Kirk294.50
David Johnson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald47481
Maxx Williams22360
Dan Arnold13200
Kenyan Drake34180
Charles Clay11160
Pharoh Cooper22140
Damiere Byrd11110
David Johnson1140
Darrell Daniels0100
Christian Kirk0500

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/3116910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson8405.00
David Moore11919.00
Travis Homer5163.20
C.J. Prosise4143.50
Russell Wilson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Hollister56640
Travis Homer68260
Malik Turner13230
David Moore12210
Chris Carson11200
Tyler Lockett17120
DK Metcalf0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.25