Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
51
Model margin
+2.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.018
- 42.7%Success rate45.5%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.119
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.81CPOE+7.05
- 36.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.85Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 11/18 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 4/9 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 24 | 166 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/31 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Hollister | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 6 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.25