2019 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

31·15

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-3.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.203EPA / play-0.027
  • 48.1%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.322EPA / dropback+0.025
  • +0.088EPA / rush-0.116
  • 12.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +3.13CPOE-3.23
  • 48.0%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.80
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00733Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:57745Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 7:12427Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:22734Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 2:121122Touchdown0–6
BALQ2 11:53521Punt0–6
CLEQ2 9:01413Punt0–6
BALQ2 6:46420Punt0–6
CLEQ2 4:58617Punt0–6
BALQ2 1:50263Touchdown7–6
CLEQ2 1:1830Punt7–6
BALQ2 0:55775Touchdown14–6
CLEQ2 0:0900End of half14–6
BALQ3 15:001369Touchdown21–6
CLEQ3 7:361041Field goal21–9
BALQ3 3:251365Field goal24–9
CLEQ4 11:321072Touchdown24–15
BALQ4 8:01869Touchdown31–15
CLEQ4 3:39317Turnover31–15
BALQ4 2:47522End of half31–15

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson20/3123830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson171036.10
Gus Edwards12665.50
Mark Ingram8556.90
Justice Hill3196.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews69932
Mark Ingram22361
Justice Hill34320
Nick Boyle34240
Seth Roberts23230
Hayden Hurst1390
Miles Boykin1180
Gus Edwards1170
Marquise Brown1260
Willie Snead0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield20/3319221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb15453.00
Kareem Hunt284.00
Baker Mayfield242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry79740
Odell Beckham Jr.46441
Kareem Hunt44330
Ricky Seals-Jones12230
Stephen Carlson1170
KhaDarel Hodge1260
Dontrell Hilliard1140
Demetrius Harris1311
Damion Ratley0300
Nick Chubb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.44