Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-3.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play-0.027
- 48.1%Success rate41.3%
- +0.322EPA / dropback+0.025
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.116
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- +3.13CPOE-3.23
- 48.0%Third-down rate36.3%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.90Points / drive1.80
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/31 | 238 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 9 | 93 | 2 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/33 | 192 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Damion Ratley | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.44