Closing spread
DAL -2
Total
47
Model margin
+1.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.004
- 48.7%Success rate44.9%
- +0.192EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.105
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.10CPOE-1.01
- 47.2%Third-down rate45.1%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.45Points / drive2.01
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/44 | 265 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 12 | 24 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 31/40 | 319 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 9 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.34