2019 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

9·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DAL -2

Total

47

Model margin

+1.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.111EPA / play+0.004
  • 48.7%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.192EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.105
  • 11.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.10CPOE-1.01
  • 47.2%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.45Points / drive2.01
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001062Field goal0–3
DALQ1 9:3237Punt0–3
PHIQ1 7:53763Touchdown0–10
DALQ1 4:0337Punt0–10
PHIQ1 2:4836Punt0–10
DALQ1 0:16648Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 12:56833Turnover on downs3–10
DALQ2 9:22420Punt3–10
PHIQ2 7:19618Punt3–10
DALQ2 3:22416Punt3–10
PHIQ2 1:52641Missed field goal3–10
DALQ2 0:29443Field goal6–10
PHIQ2 0:0300End of half6–10
DALQ3 15:001049Turnover6–10
PHIQ3 10:12515Punt6–10
DALQ3 7:18723Punt6–10
PHIQ3 4:451080Touchdown6–17
DALQ3 0:0639Punt6–17
PHIQ4 14:09539Missed field goal6–17
DALQ4 10:58724Field goal9–17
PHIQ4 7:59618Punt9–17
DALQ4 4:331165Turnover on downs9–17
PHIQ4 1:15557End of half9–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/4426500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott13473.60
Dak Prescott177.00
Tony Pollard200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup511980
Randall Cobb57730
Ezekiel Elliott77370
Amari Cooper412240
Jason Witten23140
Blake Jarwin11140
Tavon Austin1250
Dalton Schultz0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz31/4031910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders20794.01
Carson Wentz6223.70
Boston Scott3124.00
Greg Ward155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert912911
Miles Sanders56770
Greg Ward45710
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside22390
Zach Ertz46280
Boston Scott6670
Robert Davis1160
Josh Perkins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.34