Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
47
Model margin
+1.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.056
- 43.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.96CPOE+3.53
- 37.9%Third-down rate44.0%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 2.12Points / drive2.31
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/40 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 23 | 154 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 13 | 16 | 116 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16/31 | 122 | 1 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Boone | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.23