2019 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

23·10

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

47

Model margin

+1.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.056
  • 43.9%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.96CPOE+3.53
  • 37.9%Third-down rate44.0%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.31
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:0038Turnover0–0
MINQ1 14:0035Field goal0–3
GBQ1 13:11833Punt0–3
MINQ1 8:37618Punt0–3
GBQ1 6:04849Field goal3–3
MINQ1 2:0033Punt3–3
GBQ1 0:2732Turnover3–3
MINQ2 14:52326Touchdown3–10
GBQ2 13:331260Field goal6–10
MINQ2 7:0035Punt6–10
GBQ2 4:52214Turnover6–10
MINQ2 4:0746Turnover on downs6–10
GBQ2 2:3731Punt6–10
MINQ2 1:4435Punt6–10
GBQ2 0:55754Field goal9–10
MINQ3 15:0037Punt9–10
GBQ3 13:36721Punt9–10
MINQ3 9:45631Turnover9–10
GBQ3 7:12853Touchdown17–10
MINQ3 2:03520Punt17–10
GBQ4 14:0868Punt17–10
MINQ4 9:373-4Punt17–10
GBQ4 7:40375Touchdown23–10
MINQ4 5:51822Punt23–10
GBQ4 3:3438Punt23–10
MINQ4 2:314-5Turnover on downs23–10
GBQ4 1:5000End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4021601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones231546.72
Jamaal Williams6335.50
Aaron Rodgers3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams13161160
Allen Lazard59450
Jamaal Williams22190
Jimmy Graham11160
Tyler Ervin1160
Aaron Jones2360
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1160
Marcedes Lewis1120
Jake Kumerow0100
Geronimo Allison0200
Danny Vitale0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins16/3112211
Stefon Diggs0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Boone11282.50
Ameer Abdullah4276.80
Adam Thielen122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs35571
Ameer Abdullah67310
Kyle Rudolph1270
Bisi Johnson1260
Mike Boone1150
Irv Smith2340
Kirk Cousins0100
Adam Thielen0400
Laquon Treadwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.23