Closing spread
SF -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.077
- 44.3%Success rate44.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.061
- 10.3%Explosive rate12.1%
- -1.88CPOE+2.34
- 38.8%Third-down rate45.8%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 1.95Points / drive2.28
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 27/46 | 323 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 8 | 11 | 117 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 9 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 16/27 | 248 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74