2019 · Week 16 · Division
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
42
Model margin
-2.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.130
- 41.8%Success rate38.8%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.92CPOE-2.94
- 37.8%Third-down rate29.0%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.56Points / drive1.49
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 28/42 | 352 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 189 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Da'Mari Scott | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 6 | 11 | 96 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 4 | 90 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Kaden Smith | 6 | 8 | 35 | 2 |
| Da'Mari Scott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 16/22 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 12/15 | 133 | 2 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 6 | 10 | 64 | 2 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Hale Hentges | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.53