2019 · Week 16 · Division

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

41·35

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

42

Model margin

-2.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.064EPA / play-0.130
  • 41.8%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.92CPOE-2.94
  • 37.8%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 69.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.49
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:00575Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 12:21975Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 7:37275Touchdown14–7
WASQ1 6:461275Touchdown14–14
NYGQ2 14:561070Touchdown21–14
WASQ2 9:16734Punt21–14
NYGQ2 5:42416Punt21–14
WASQ2 3:5333Punt21–14
NYGQ2 2:19958Touchdown28–14
WASQ2 0:3839End of half28–14
WASQ3 15:0067Punt28–14
NYGQ3 11:4431Punt28–14
WASQ3 10:19760Touchdown28–21
NYGQ3 6:38673Touchdown35–21
WASQ3 3:4036Punt35–21
NYGQ3 2:06415Punt35–21
WASQ4 14:3821Touchdown35–28
NYGQ4 14:30540Missed field goal35–28
WASQ4 11:203-7Punt35–28
NYGQ4 9:30633Punt35–28
WASQ4 6:281598Touchdown35–35
NYGQ4 0:29530End of half35–35
NYGOT1166Touchdown41–35

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones28/4235250

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley221898.61
Daniel Jones3124.00
Da'Mari Scott155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate611960
Saquon Barkley44901
Sterling Shepard66761
Cody Latimer57441
Kaden Smith68352
Da'Mari Scott11110
Darius Slayton0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum16/2215810
Dwayne Haskins12/1513320
Kelvin Harmon1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson15362.41
Chris Thompson8344.30
Steven Sims294.50
Case Keenum111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin79860
Steven Sims610642
Kelvin Harmon56580
Hale Hentges22281
Adrian Peterson22190
Chris Thompson44180
Cam Sims11150
Jeremy Sprinkle23140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.53