Closing spread
LAC -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.7est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 27/39 | 279 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.69
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.