Closing spread
LA -7
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.001
- 42.7%Success rate44.3%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.089
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.159
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.81CPOE-1.88
- 36.0%Third-down rate38.8%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.85Points / drive1.95
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. LA are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 26/42 | 325 | 2 | 2 |
| Brett Hundley | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Brett Hundley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 4 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Damiere Byrd | 7 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 29/45 | 319 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 99 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 8 | 12 | 84 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 12 | 67 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.06