Closing spread
CHI -5.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.056
- 41.1%Success rate42.1%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.082
- 6.0%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.71CPOE+3.53
- 36.4%Third-down rate44.0%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.50Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 26/37 | 207 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 23 | 113 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 9 | 12 | 71 | 0 |
| Riley Ridley | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 9 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Mannion | 12/21 | 126 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Boone | 17 | 148 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hollins | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.69
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.78