2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

21·19

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sean Mannion

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CHI -5.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.056
  • 41.1%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.082
  • 6.0%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.71CPOE+3.53
  • 36.4%Third-down rate44.0%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00259Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 14:151169Field goal3–0
MINQ1 7:41312Turnover3–0
CHIQ1 6:17924Field goal6–0
MINQ1 0:441356Field goal6–3
CHIQ2 9:1767Punt8–3
MINQ2 6:111-1Safety8–3
CHIQ2 6:03851Field goal11–3
MINQ2 1:51555Field goal11–6
CHIQ3 15:00975Touchdown18–6
MINQ3 9:4949Punt18–6
CHIQ3 7:481033Turnover on downs18–6
MINQ3 3:00843Touchdown18–13
CHIQ4 14:1339Punt18–13
MINQ4 13:14960Field goal18–16
CHIQ4 8:545-2Turnover18–16
MINQ4 6:2037Field goal18–19
CHIQ4 4:531471Field goal21–19
MINQ4 0:1010Turnover21–19

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky26/3720700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery231134.91
Tarik Cohen4205.00
Cordarrelle Patterson2147.00
Ryan Nall284.00
Allen Robinson122.00
Mitchell Trubisky210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson912710
Riley Ridley34540
Tarik Cohen910440
Javon Wims37230
Eric Saubert11100
Anthony Miller1150

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sean Mannion12/2112602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Boone171488.71
Ameer Abdullah6223.70
Sean Mannion100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alexander Hollins23460
Bisi Johnson34340
Ameer Abdullah34140
Mike Boone23120
Irv Smith12110
Tyler Conklin1190
Laquon Treadwell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.69
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.78