Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Browns
- QuestionableJ.C. TretterCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableKendall LammTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableOdell BeckhamWRGroin· DNP
- QuestionableOlivier VernonDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionablePharaoh BrownTEIllness· DNP
- QuestionableRicky Seals-JonesTEIllness· Limited
- QuestionableSheldon RichardsonDTBack· Limited
- LimitedChristopher HubbardTKnee
Bengals
- OutWilliam JacksonCBShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulStanley MorganWRConcussion· DNP
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.097
- 41.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.025EPA / dropback-0.076
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.137
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.23CPOE-5.27
- 36.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.80Points / drive1.31
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:32 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 9:53 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 8:49 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CLE | Q1 7:05 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q1 5:28 | 3 | 3 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| CLE | Q1 4:45 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CIN | Q1 0:48 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| CLE | Q2 10:06 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CIN | Q2 6:53 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 10–20 |
| CLE | Q2 3:44 | 5 | 76 | Touchdown | 16–20 |
| CIN | Q2 1:52 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 16–20 |
| CLE | Q2 1:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 16–20 |
| CIN | Q2 0:57 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 16–20 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 16–23 |
| CLE | Q3 9:04 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 16–23 |
| CIN | Q3 7:33 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 16–23 |
| CLE | Q3 6:44 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 16–23 |
| CIN | Q3 4:32 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 16–30 |
| CLE | Q4 14:16 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 23–30 |
| CIN | Q4 7:16 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 23–33 |
| CLE | Q4 1:55 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 23–33 |
| CIN | Q4 0:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/27 | 279 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Damion Ratley | 2 | 3 | 64 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/28 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 26 | 162 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 5 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79