2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

23·20

Lions

Detroit

QB David Blough

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -13.5

Total

44

Model margin

-9.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.039
  • 43.9%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback+0.049
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.193
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.96CPOE-3.54
  • 37.9%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.73
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:1632Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:13983Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 7:591132Punt0–7
DETQ1 2:2738Punt0–7
GBQ1 1:0569Punt0–7
DETQ2 12:45410Punt0–7
GBQ2 10:36417Punt0–7
DETQ2 9:051283Touchdown0–14
GBQ2 3:13976Field goal3–14
DETQ2 0:20351Field goal3–17
GBQ3 15:00843Missed field goal3–17
DETQ3 11:04517Punt3–17
GBQ3 9:001295Touchdown10–17
DETQ3 3:1031Punt10–17
GBQ3 1:391151Field goal13–17
DETQ4 12:0743Field goal13–20
GBQ4 11:0830Punt13–20
DETQ4 10:3655Turnover13–20
GBQ4 7:52740Touchdown20–20
DETQ4 5:19423Punt20–20
GBQ4 3:34714Turnover20–20
DETQ4 1:4035Punt20–20
GBQ4 1:20654Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/5532321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones251004.00
Tyler Ervin11010.00
Dexter Williams294.50
Aaron Rodgers210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams713931
Allen Lazard48691
Jimmy Graham47490
Aaron Jones26430
Marquez Valdes-Scantling27190
Geronimo Allison34170
Marcedes Lewis11120
Robert Tonyan2390
Jake Kumerow1270
Tyler Ervin1350

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Blough12/2912201
Danny Amendola1/11910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Johnson36521.70
Kerryon Johnson11534.81
Bo Scarbrough9424.70
David Blough2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay34720
David Blough11191
Danny Amendola24160
Logan Thomas13150
Chris Lacy27120
Jesse James2350
J.D. McKissic1240
Ty Johnson0200
Travis Fulgham0100
Jamal Agnew12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.52.5%2.9%3.5%3.5%4.9%3.1%6.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

25.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.27
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-9.30