Closing spread
GB -13.5
Total
44
Model margin
-9.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.039
- 43.9%Success rate41.5%
- +0.124EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.96CPOE-3.54
- 37.9%Third-down rate41.4%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.12Points / drive1.73
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/55 | 323 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 25 | 100 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Dexter Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 93 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 12/29 | 122 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 1/1 | 19 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 65 | 21.7 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Bo Scarbrough | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| David Blough | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| David Blough | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Lacy | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
25.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-7.27
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-9.30