2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

20·38

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

IND -5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.053
  • 44.5%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.010
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.145
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -3.86CPOE-3.03
  • 41.9%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.61
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–22 since 1999

JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND
2022 · W2IND @ JAX0–24JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:001183Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 9:06642Field goal3–3
INDQ1 6:191262Touchdown10–3
JAXQ1 0:41840Field goal10–6
INDQ2 12:00424Punt10–6
JAXQ2 9:41790Touchdown10–13
INDQ2 5:42655Touchdown17–13
JAXQ2 2:11310Turnover17–13
INDQ2 1:2635Field goal20–13
JAXQ2 0:39635Field goal20–16
JAXQ3 15:001260Touchdown20–24
INDQ3 8:2758Punt20–24
JAXQ3 6:05726Punt20–24
INDQ3 2:02426Punt20–24
JAXQ4 14:4479Punt20–24
INDQ4 10:3033Opp touchdown20–31
INDQ4 9:2849Turnover20–31
JAXQ4 7:45634Touchdown20–38
INDQ4 4:4240Turnover on downs20–38
JAXQ4 4:09310End of half20–38

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett12/2516200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack15775.12
Nyheim Hines7344.90
Jacoby Brissett4174.30
Zach Pascal144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton33720
Marcus Johnson24310
Nyheim Hines35220
Mo Alie-Cox11150
Zach Pascal13100
Dontrelle Inman1360
Jack Doyle1460
Marlon Mack0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew27/3929531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryquell Armstead10333.30
Devine Ozigbo9273.00
Gardner Minshew571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook78721
Keelan Cole34671
Ryquell Armstead59521
Chris Conley36380
DJ Chark45340
Devine Ozigbo35230
Charles Jones1150
Seth DeValve1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.57