Closing spread
IND -5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.053
- 44.5%Success rate39.3%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.010
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.86CPOE-3.03
- 41.9%Third-down rate35.4%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.94Points / drive1.61
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 12/25 | 162 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Nyheim Hines | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 27/39 | 295 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryquell Armstead | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 7 | 8 | 72 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 5 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Charles Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.57