2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

34·17

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

44

Model margin

-0.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.064
  • 44.9%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.129
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.01CPOE-1.92
  • 45.1%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.56
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
PHIQ1 15:001155Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 10:17616Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:58869Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 3:393-9Punt3–0
PHIQ1 1:343-6Punt3–0
NYGQ1 0:3136Punt3–0
PHIQ2 13:49627Punt3–0
NYGQ2 10:0437Punt3–0
PHIQ2 9:0336Punt3–0
NYGQ2 7:26652Field goal3–3
PHIQ2 5:16875Touchdown10–3
NYGQ2 1:52836Punt10–3
PHIQ2 0:2336Punt10–3
NYGQ3 15:001071Touchdown10–10
PHIQ3 9:414-2Punt10–10
NYGQ3 8:09643Turnover on downs10–10
PHIQ3 5:32962Touchdown17–10
NYGQ3 2:21168Touchdown17–17
PHIQ3 2:05853Field goal20–17
NYGQ4 13:582-3Turnover26–17
PHIQ4 13:0312Touchdown27–17
NYGQ4 13:003-4Punt27–17
PHIQ4 11:3637Punt27–17
NYGQ4 10:0148Turnover on downs27–17
PHIQ4 7:53438Touchdown34–17
NYGQ4 6:14847Turnover34–17
PHIQ4 3:0938Punt34–17
NYGQ4 2:051159End of half34–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz23/4028910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott19542.83
Miles Sanders9525.80
Carson Wentz3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Boston Scott46840
Dallas Goedert410650
Josh Perkins46501
Deontay Burnett24480
Greg Ward67430
Robert Davis0200
Miles Sanders35-10

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones28/4730111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley17925.41
Daniel Jones3268.70
Javorius Allen144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kaden Smith811980
Golden Tate58681
Darius Slayton49500
Sterling Shepard510390
Saquon Barkley34250
Cody Latimer23120
Javorius Allen1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.84