Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
44
Model margin
-0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.064
- 44.9%Success rate41.8%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.01CPOE-1.92
- 45.1%Third-down rate37.8%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 2.01Points / drive1.56
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 23/40 | 289 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 4 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Josh Perkins | 4 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Deontay Burnett | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Robert Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 28/47 | 301 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Smith | 8 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.84