2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Devlin Hodges

10·28

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Robert Griffin

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -2

Total

35

Model margin

+1.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.136EPA / play+0.203
  • 38.5%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.257EPA / rush+0.088
  • 7.4%Explosive rate12.0%
  • -1.51CPOE+3.13
  • 34.3%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.35Points / drive2.90
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:001035Field goal0–3
PITQ1 7:5631Punt0–3
BALQ1 7:04861Field goal0–6
PITQ1 2:401075Touchdown7–6
BALQ2 12:50618Punt7–6
PITQ2 9:46828Punt7–6
BALQ2 5:16941Field goal7–9
PITQ2 1:1035Turnover7–9
BALQ2 0:45428Touchdown7–16
PITQ2 0:2100End of half7–16
PITQ3 15:0032Punt7–16
BALQ3 14:02314Turnover7–16
PITQ3 13:16721Field goal10–16
BALQ3 9:55632Punt10–16
PITQ3 4:4633Punt10–16
BALQ3 2:42729Field goal10–19
PITQ4 13:29625Punt10–19
BALQ4 11:14930Punt10–19
PITQ4 4:5440Safety10–26
PITQ4 4:3220Safety10–28
BALQ4 4:21716Turnover10–28
PITQ4 0:2419End of half10–28

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Devlin Hodges9/259500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell18915.11
Kerrith Whyte310.30
Devlin Hodges1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson47540
Vance McDonald22190
Jaylen Samuels12160
JuJu Smith-Schuster2660
James Washington0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III11/219601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards211306.20
Robert Griffin III8506.30
Justice Hill10393.91
De'Anthony Thomas111.00
Trace McSorley111.00
Willie Snead100.00
Chris Moore100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hayden Hurst22350
Willie Snead35220
Marquise Brown22150
Justice Hill12100
Nick Boyle1260
Jaleel Scott1360
Gus Edwards1120
Seth Roberts0100
Miles Boykin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.94
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.33