Closing spread
PIT -2
Total
35
Model margin
+1.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play+0.203
- 38.5%Success rate48.1%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.257EPA / rush+0.088
- 7.4%Explosive rate12.0%
- -1.51CPOE+3.13
- 34.3%Third-down rate48.0%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.35Points / drive2.90
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devlin Hodges | 9/25 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Kerrith Whyte | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 11/21 | 96 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 21 | 130 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Trace McSorley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaleel Scott | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.94
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33