Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.018
- 44.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.119
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.134
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.34CPOE+7.05
- 45.8%Third-down rate39.1%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 2.28Points / drive1.86
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 18/22 | 285 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 5 | 102 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 7 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/40 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Homer | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 12 | 81 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| David Moore | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| John Ursua | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrone Swoopes | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.06