2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

26·21

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.018
  • 44.8%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.119
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.134
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.34CPOE+7.05
  • 45.8%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 2.28Points / drive1.86
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0041Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:49945Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 7:35619Punt3–0
SFQ1 4:56894Touchdown10–0
SEAQ1 0:24610Punt10–0
SFQ2 11:271181Field goal13–0
SEAQ2 5:44949Turnover on downs13–0
SFQ2 0:4522End of half13–0
SFQ3 15:0032Punt13–0
SEAQ3 12:531272Touchdown13–7
SFQ3 5:46575Touchdown19–7
SEAQ3 3:251575Touchdown19–14
SFQ4 9:55775Touchdown26–14
SEAQ4 5:51846Touchdown26–21
SFQ4 3:36322Punt26–21
SEAQ4 2:271476Turnover on downs26–21
SFQ4 0:0912End of half26–21

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo18/2228500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert10575.72
Deebo Samuel Sr.23316.51
Matt Breida4164.00
Tevin Coleman5112.20
George Kittle177.00
Jimmy Garoppolo242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.551020
George Kittle77860
Emmanuel Sanders34250
Raheem Mostert12160
Tevin Coleman1270
Matt Breida0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson25/4023320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Homer10626.20
Marshawn Lynch12342.81
Russell Wilson8293.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf612811
Tyler Lockett67511
David Moore22300
Travis Homer55300
Jacob Hollister48250
John Ursua11110
Tyrone Swoopes1150
Jaron Brown0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.06