2019 · Week 17 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
DAL -13
Total
47.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.111
- 38.8%Success rate48.7%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.017
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.1%
- -2.94CPOE+1.10
- 29.0%Third-down rate47.2%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.49Points / drive2.45
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 18/37 | 206 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Sims | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Hale Hentges | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/33 | 303 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18 | 122 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 7 | 98 | 3 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 92 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.11