2019 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

16·47

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -13

Total

47.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.111
  • 38.8%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.017
  • 8.3%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -2.94CPOE+1.10
  • 29.0%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.45
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:5130Turnover0–0
DALQ1 12:351031Field goal0–3
WASQ1 7:4125Turnover0–3
DALQ1 6:433-8Field goal0–6
WASQ1 5:151357Turnover on downs0–6
DALQ2 14:492-2Turnover0–6
WASQ2 14:3433Field goal3–6
DALQ2 13:37785Touchdown3–13
WASQ2 11:013-8Punt3–13
DALQ2 9:283-4Punt3–13
WASQ2 8:0245Turnover on downs3–13
DALQ2 6:34676Touchdown3–20
WASQ2 3:501159Touchdown10–20
DALQ2 0:34536End of half10–20
WASQ3 15:00558Field goal13–20
DALQ3 11:54775Touchdown13–27
WASQ3 8:17465Field goal16–27
DALQ3 7:00643Field goal16–30
WASQ3 4:073-9Punt16–30
DALQ3 2:52453Touchdown16–37
WASQ3 0:52529Turnover on downs16–37
DALQ4 13:37349Touchdown16–44
WASQ4 12:4632Punt16–44
DALQ4 11:021472Field goal16–47
WASQ4 2:4035Punt16–47
DALQ4 0:2600End of half16–47

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum18/3720611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson13786.00
Chris Thompson3113.70
Wendell Smallwood351.70
Steven Sims1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steven Sims58811
Hale Hentges47620
Kelvin Harmon35330
Jeremy Sprinkle36180
Cam Sims12120
Adrian Peterson1400
Chris Thompson1300

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/3330340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott181226.81
Tony Pollard14604.30
Dak Prescott33511.70
Amari Cooper166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup57983
Amari Cooper45920
Randall Cobb56810
Jason Witten44240
Tony Pollard1250
Ezekiel Elliott3521
Tavon Austin1210
Blake Jarwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.11