2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

24·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.010
  • 46.0%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.009EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +2.07CPOE-1.74
  • 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.19Points / drive2.03
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
SFQ1 15:00526Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 11:50520Punt0–9
SFQ1 10:05176Touchdown0–10
ARIQ1 9:5333Punt0–10
SFQ1 8:3135Punt6–10
ARIQ1 7:05110Touchdown7–10
SFQ1 6:5537Punt7–10
ARIQ1 5:17411Punt7–10
SFQ1 4:011066Turnover on downs7–10
ARIQ2 12:301265Missed field goal7–10
SFQ2 7:28522Punt7–10
ARIQ2 5:16528Turnover7–10
SFQ2 2:29520Field goal7–13
ARIQ2 0:30437Field goal10–13
ARIQ3 15:001157Missed field goal10–13
SFQ3 9:493-2Punt10–13
ARIQ3 8:10625Punt10–13
SFQ3 5:43836Punt10–13
ARIQ3 2:141771Touchdown17–13
SFQ4 10:26751Touchdown17–20
ARIQ4 8:38975Touchdown24–20
SFQ4 5:031259Turnover on downs24–20
ARIQ4 0:33211End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray26/4023011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray13917.01
Kenyan Drake16603.81
Chase Edmonds6264.30
Chris Streveler133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins14161510
Larry Fitzgerald45340
Dan Arnold22210
Chase Edmonds35191
Kenyan Drake2250
Maxx Williams0200
Christian Kirk1500

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo19/3325920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert15563.70
Jerick McKinnon3248.00
Tevin Coleman4184.50
Jimmy Garoppolo199.00
George Kittle199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raheem Mostert45951
George Kittle45440
Kendrick Bourne25340
Jerick McKinnon35201
Jordan Reed22120
Trent Taylor2570
Tevin Coleman1260
Dante Pettis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

39.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.69