Closing spread
SF -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.010
- 46.0%Success rate45.8%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.009EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.4%
- +2.07CPOE-1.74
- 40.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.19Points / drive2.03
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 26/40 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 16 | 60 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Streveler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 14 | 16 | 151 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 19/33 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 5 | 95 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
39.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.69