2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

27·23

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.014
  • 44.0%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.156
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.28CPOE-1.27
  • 34.8%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.14
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
CHIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:1831Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:5810Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 11:53741Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 8:57319Field goal0–0
DETQ1 8:08222Field goal0–0
DETQ1 6:4320Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 6:30216Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 5:14323Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 3:12419Field goal3–3
DETQ1 1:30419Punt3–3
CHIQ2 14:00727Punt3–3
DETQ2 10:441288Field goal3–6
CHIQ2 5:33755Field goal6–6
DETQ2 2:0239Punt6–6
CHIQ2 1:0533Punt6–6
DETQ2 0:40448Touchdown6–13
CHIQ2 0:1917End of half6–13
DETQ3 15:00865Touchdown6–20
CHIQ3 10:37523Punt6–20
DETQ3 7:29948Field goal6–23
CHIQ3 3:191159Touchdown13–23
DETQ4 13:39713Punt13–23
CHIQ4 10:444-6Punt13–23
DETQ4 8:26730Missed field goal13–23
CHIQ4 4:02555Touchdown20–23
DETQ4 2:5835Turnover20–23
CHIQ4 2:35232Touchdown27–23
DETQ4 1:541059End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky20/3624230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery13644.90
Tarik Cohen7415.90
Mitchell Trubisky3268.70
Cordarrelle Patterson4194.80
Allen Robinson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Miller46761
Allen Robinson59740
Darnell Mooney33380
Jimmy Graham37251
Cordarrelle Patterson11120
David Montgomery13100
Tarik Cohen2260
Javon Wims1211
Ted Ginn0100
Demetrius Harris0100
Cole Kmet0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/4229711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson14936.60
Matthew Stafford5234.60
Kerryon Johnson7142.00
D'Andre Swift382.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola57810
T.J. Hockenson55561
Marvin Jones48550
Quintez Cephus310430
Marvin Hall12260
Adrian Peterson33210
D'Andre Swift35150
Jamal Agnew0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

47.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.09