Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.014
- 44.0%Success rate45.5%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.156
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.28CPOE-1.27
- 34.8%Third-down rate41.6%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.97Points / drive2.14
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 20/36 | 242 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Miller | 4 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/42 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 3 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.09