2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

6·38

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

47

Model margin

+4.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.109
  • 46.9%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.034EPA / rush+0.093
  • 11.2%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.55CPOE-0.32
  • 45.5%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.64
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:00622Turnover0–0
BALQ1 12:19846Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:4144Turnover0–7
BALQ1 6:0833Field goal0–10
CLEQ1 4:38675Touchdown6–10
BALQ1 1:41455Turnover6–10
CLEQ2 14:541338Punt6–10
BALQ2 8:411099Touchdown6–17
CLEQ2 2:53652Missed field goal6–17
BALQ2 0:41769Touchdown6–24
CLEQ2 0:0600End of half6–24
BALQ3 15:003-4Punt6–24
CLEQ3 13:23105Punt6–24
BALQ3 11:11650Touchdown6–31
CLEQ3 7:481238Turnover on downs6–31
BALQ3 3:01413Punt6–31
CLEQ3 0:42214Turnover6–31
BALQ4 15:00420Touchdown6–38
CLEQ4 13:00732Turnover on downs6–38
BALQ4 10:0648Punt6–38
CLEQ4 7:50727Punt6–38
BALQ4 4:05523End of half6–38

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3918911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt13725.50
Nick Chubb10606.00
D'Ernest Johnson155.00
Baker Mayfield231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry56610
David Njoku33501
Odell Beckham Jr.310220
Austin Hooper22150
KhaDarel Hodge13120
Rashard Higgins1190
Kareem Hunt4690
Nick Chubb1160
Harrison Bryant1250
Stephen Carlson0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson20/2527530
Robert Griffin III1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson7456.40
Mark Ingram10292.90
J.K. Dobbins7223.12
Gus Edwards4174.30
Robert Griffin III1-1-1.00
Patrick Ricard1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown561010
Willie Snead44641
Mark Andrews56582
Miles Boykin34370
Devin Duvernay11120
Patrick Ricard1190
Nick Boyle2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.31