Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
47
Model margin
+4.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.109
- 46.9%Success rate45.2%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.034EPA / rush+0.093
- 11.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.55CPOE-0.32
- 45.5%Third-down rate49.8%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.32Points / drive2.64
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/39 | 189 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 10 | 22 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Stephen Carlson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/25 | 275 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Gus Edwards | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 5 | 6 | 101 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 6 | 58 | 2 |
| Miles Boykin | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31