2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

43·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

45

Model margin

-1.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.221EPA / play+0.089
  • 50.7%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.353EPA / dropback+0.175
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.025
  • 10.1%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +6.90CPOE+4.45
  • 50.7%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 86.4%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 2.98Points / drive2.30
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:001258Field goal3–0
MINQ1 7:27860Touchdown3–7
GBQ1 3:241274Turnover on downs3–7
MINQ2 12:192-1Safety5–7
GBQ2 11:39839Field goal8–7
MINQ2 8:083-5Punt8–7
GBQ2 6:041155Touchdown15–7
MINQ2 0:3920Turnover15–7
GBQ2 0:25245Touchdown22–7
MINQ2 0:14243Field goal22–10
MINQ3 15:00631Punt22–10
GBQ3 11:57732Punt22–10
MINQ3 7:25637Turnover on downs22–10
GBQ3 4:20861Touchdown29–10
MINQ3 0:09477Touchdown29–18
GBQ4 13:53775Touchdown36–18
MINQ4 10:02765Touchdown36–26
GBQ4 7:55985Touchdown43–26
MINQ4 3:19975Touchdown43–34
GBQ4 1:2100End of half43–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers32/4436440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones16664.11
Tyler Ervin33812.70
Jamaal Williams7213.00
Allen Lazard11919.00
AJ Dillon2147.00
Aaron Rodgers122.00
Tim Boyle2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams14171562
Marquez Valdes-Scantling46961
Allen Lazard44631
Jamaal Williams44210
Josiah Deguara12120
Aaron Jones46100
Tyler Ervin1160
Jace Sternberger0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/2525921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook12504.22
Alexander Mattison6508.30
Kirk Cousins4348.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen681102
Bisi Johnson34560
Alexander Mattison44300
Kyle Rudolph22280
Justin Jefferson23260
Irv Smith11110
Tajae Sharpe0100
Dalvin Cook12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

48.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.76