Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
45
Model margin
-1.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.221EPA / play+0.089
- 50.7%Success rate49.1%
- +0.353EPA / dropback+0.175
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.025
- 10.1%Explosive rate11.4%
- +6.90CPOE+4.45
- 50.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 86.4%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 2.98Points / drive2.30
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 32/44 | 364 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tyler Ervin | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 14 | 17 | 156 | 2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 6 | 96 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jace Sternberger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/25 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 8 | 110 | 2 |
| Bisi Johnson | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
48.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.46
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.76