Closing spread
IND -7
Total
44
Model margin
-3.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.050
- 46.8%Success rate42.0%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.086
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.03CPOE-0.40
- 39.7%Third-down rate40.6%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 2.35Points / drive1.74
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 36/46 | 363 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parris Campbell | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 8 | 8 | 45 | 1 |
| Marlon Mack | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 19/20 | 173 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 5 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.7%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.51