2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

20·27

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

44

Model margin

-3.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.050
  • 46.8%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.086
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.03CPOE-0.40
  • 39.7%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 2.35Points / drive1.74
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:00763Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 11:42938Punt7–0
INDQ1 6:18764Turnover on downs7–0
JAXQ1 3:09730Punt7–0
INDQ2 14:27420Turnover7–0
JAXQ2 12:50427Touchdown7–7
INDQ2 10:421175Touchdown14–7
JAXQ2 4:45975Touchdown14–14
INDQ2 1:38647Field goal17–14
JAXQ2 0:0500End of half17–14
JAXQ3 15:003-7Punt17–14
INDQ3 13:021164Missed field goal17–14
JAXQ3 7:42718Field goal17–17
INDQ3 3:301664Field goal17–17
INDQ4 10:3017Field goal20–17
INDQ4 9:4300Field goal20–17
JAXQ4 9:39760Touchdown20–24
INDQ4 5:5637Turnover20–24
JAXQ4 4:2433Field goal20–27
INDQ4 2:50834Turnover on downs20–27
JAXQ4 0:4400End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers36/4636312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nyheim Hines7284.01
Marlon Mack4266.50
Jonathan Taylor9222.40
Parris Campbell199.00
Philip Rivers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parris Campbell69710
Jonathan Taylor66670
T.Y. Hilton49530
Jack Doyle34490
Nyheim Hines88451
Marlon Mack33300
Mo Alie-Cox22200
Zach Pascal23180
Michael Pittman22100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew19/2017330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson16623.90
Gardner Minshew5193.80
Laviska Shenault Jr.2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole55471
Laviska Shenault Jr.34371
James Robinson11280
DJ Chark33251
Collin Johnson11140
Tyler Eifert1180
Chris Thompson2260
Chris Conley1160
James O'Shaughnessy1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.7%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.51