2020 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

11·21

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-4.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.004
  • 46.8%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback-0.040
  • -0.124EPA / rush+0.052
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.23CPOE-2.06
  • 38.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.88
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NE
MIAQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:55217Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:3929Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:2743Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:07731Punt0–0
NEQ1 4:231180Touchdown0–7
MIAQ2 13:12413Turnover0–7
NEQ2 11:393-2Punt0–7
MIAQ2 9:09959Field goal3–7
NEQ2 3:5339Punt3–7
MIAQ2 2:13955Turnover3–7
NEQ2 0:31529Missed field goal3–7
MIAQ2 0:0100End of half3–7
NEQ3 15:00875Touchdown3–14
MIAQ3 10:1435Punt3–14
NEQ3 8:421368Turnover3–14
MIAQ3 0:541352Touchdown11–14
NEQ4 10:311060Touchdown11–21
MIAQ4 5:231246Turnover11–21
NEQ4 1:28210End of half11–21

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3019103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin9404.40
Matt Breida5224.40
Ryan Fitzpatrick5183.60
Jordan Howard870.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker44470
Preston Williams27410
Mike Gesicki35300
Myles Gaskin44260
Jakeem Grant33250
Isaiah Ford25130
Patrick Laird2290

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton15/1915500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton15755.02
Sony Michel10373.71
Rex Burkhead7324.60
J.J. Taylor4287.00
Julian Edelman12323.00
James White5224.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman57570
N'Keal Harry56390
James White33300
Ryan Izzo12250
J.J. Taylor1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.97