Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-4.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.004
- 46.8%Success rate46.5%
- +0.115EPA / dropback-0.040
- -0.124EPA / rush+0.052
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.23CPOE-2.06
- 38.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.88
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/30 | 191 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 2 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Patrick Laird | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15/19 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Sony Michel | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| James White | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.97